2026 NFL Odds: Back C.J. Stroud, Texans To Win AFC South; Fade Titans

August 21, 2026 - 22:47

The AFC South is shaping up to be a two-horse race, but the gap between the top and the bottom might be wider than most fans expect. Geoff Schwartz recently broke down the division, and his take is clear: back C.J. Stroud and the Houston Texans to take the crown, while fading the Tennessee Titans entirely.

Houston has the most complete roster in the division. Stroud is entering his third year, and he has already shown he can carry a team through a tough schedule. The addition of a healthy offensive line and a revamped receiving corps should only help. The Texans defense, led by Will Anderson Jr., is young but disruptive. They have the best quarterback, the best pass rush, and the most coaching stability. That is a dangerous combination in a division where everyone else is still figuring out their identity.

The Titans, on the other hand, are in a full rebuild. They have a new coaching staff, a rookie quarterback in Will Levis who is still developing, and a roster that lost its best offensive weapon in Derrick Henry. The offensive line is a question mark, and the defense is thin at cornerback. Tennessee might win a few games early, but by December, they will be fighting for the first overall pick, not a playoff spot.

The Jacksonville Jaguars and Indianapolis Colts are somewhere in the middle. Trevor Lawrence is solid, but the Jags have too many holes on defense and a shaky offensive line. The Colts have Anthony Richardson, who is exciting but unproven. Neither team is ready to unseat Houston.

So, the smart money is on the Texans to win the division by three or four games. As for the Titans, they are the clear bottom feeders. Do not overthink this one.